随后解禁压力大导致未来市场上攻仍需调整时间

2016-07-18 12:07 [汽车] 来源于：未知

导读：SFF中信财富分析师认为：中国股市当周(07月11日-07月15日)周一开盘2993.75点，盘中最高触及3069.05点，全周沪指上涨2.22%，收报3054点。至此，A股在周K线上构成一个大级别的红三兵形态，后市或能看高一线！当周大盘接连冲关，沪股通本周累计净流入超50亿元，

SFF中信财富分析师认为：中国股市当周(07月11日-07月15日)周一开盘2993.75点，盘中最高触及3069.05点，全周沪指上涨2.22%，收报3054点。至此，A股在周K线上构成一个大级别的红三兵形态，后市或能看高一线！当周大盘接连冲关，沪股通本周累计净流入超50亿元，两融余额增量近百亿，场外资金抄底节奏明显加快。但权重板块的轮番上涨消耗了大量的增量资金，例如有色、军工航天、白酒、煤炭、钢铁以及证券板块轮番上涨，而中小板、创业板依旧是存量博弈，尽管板块轮动明显，但是可持续性不强。同时，前期下跌后套牢盘不小，随后解禁压力大，导致未来市场上攻仍需调整时间。随着指数的步步走高，投资者心理也在发生微妙的变化，多空分歧正在加大。这些都是可以导致市场出现调整的因素。如果市场出现偏弱的走势，也并不是坏事，请投资者不要过于恐慌。相反调整可能是再度建仓的绝佳机会。

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技术分析：中国上证指数周线已经是三连阳，当周这根阳线是自5178点回落以来的第57周的变盘周期，反弹趋势已经确立，上方在60周均线之前的技术性阻力并不特别大，因而距离60周均线位置的3328点还有近300点的上涨空间。而从日K线来看，当前则面临4月13日高点3097点的阻力压制。大盘近日已经在该高点下方不远的3050点上下一带窄幅度震荡了三个交易日，在技术指标中看，MACD多方量能柱体已经开始缩短，KDJ高位死叉，释放短期调整信号。综合技术分析，预计下周初将会自该位置发生变盘。周五在上半年GDP数据超预期的情况下都未能直接上攻3097点，表明主力在上攻突破之前还需要进些洗盘，减轻筹码负担，之后才能突破。因此，下周初预计大盘会回撤至3025点附近一带，主力在这一带完成洗盘、换仓调股之后，将会再度上攻并突破3097点，然后中线向60周均线位置进发。操作上，先防御、后反击，既要防范个股结构性风险释放，也要把握结构性机会的降临。忌追高，逢低关注底部形态较好且滞涨的个股投资机会，逢高减持连续涨幅过高股及高价题材股。短线行情注意规避随时回调给我们带来的风险，投资者可以利用沪深精选股票差价合约，进行短期内套利操作，规避市场短线回调风险，及时做好风险防控。

SFF中信财富策略分析：中国上证指数当周震荡走强，近期随着改革信号的不断释放，尤其是周四突然公布的央企改革试点全面铺开，极大地改善了此前市场对国内改革的悲观预期，市场整体持续回暖，做多热情亦在累积，A股得到了短中期上涨的动力。不过，因市场持续上涨而积累的获利筹码近期对A股构成了极大的卖盘压力，加上3100点上方亦有无数的套牢盘，中级反弹尚不能一蹴而就，更遑论牛市再临！所以，下周市场仍将洗盘为主，以消化一众获利筹码，待休养生息完毕，市场会重新走上震荡向上的道路。不过，震荡市中盲目追涨杀跌只会被主力玩弄于股掌之中，对于一些有题材，有中报业绩，仍维持在上升通道运行的微小盘股，自然是主力炒作的最爱，此类股在下跌时我们应该大胆持仓加仓，提前潜伏静待反弹到来。市场中依然不乏投资机会，投资者可以利用沪深精选股票差价合约，进行短期内套利操作，规避市场短线回调风险，及时做好风险防控。

（编辑：小中）